Every so often, there occurs an event that serves as a turning point in history. Sometimes these events are difficult to know in the moment, sometimes they are obvious. Last week’s violent insurrection by pro-Trump extremists at the U.S. Capitol is clearly one such turning point. We dare not pretend that what happened isn’t a monumental moment in our history. What we have witnessed is the inevitable result of years of radical rhetoric, disinformation, and individuals at the highest levels of government willing to overlook dangerous behavior for political gain. Many of us predicted something like this. As awful as it was, we know it could have so easily gone very much worse. Insurrectionists brought weapons, set up a gallows, and placed pipe bombs in areas where the entire Congress and a large portion of the line of succession were located. They did so at one of the most critical moments in our transfer of power where the new Congress formally acknowledges the next president. We know the facts about who did it because they admitted to it, posted selfies of it, and the FBI has confirmed their identities as pro-Trump extremists. They were incited by the president and his allies only moments before the violence began. So the question now is, where do we go from here?

What Could Happen?

Do not be fooled by those who have been complicit in the president’s behavior when they try to downplay the significance of this moment or tell us we need to move on without punishment for those at fault. Failed coups can lead to successful coups if the people responsible are not made to answer for their actions. There are numerous incidents like this throughout history. What’s the worst that could happen? Just look at civil conflicts in other countries. Civil war in the modern era is almost never about states seceding from the Union and sending armies to far off battlefields. Conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, the Balkans, and Venezuela all show that civil conflict now looks like guerilla warfare against insurgent groups. The fighting happens everywhere in cities, rural communities, and puts every civilian at risk. Nobody is safe or free from consequence in such an environment. From the Oathkeepers to the Boogaloo Bois, there are many organizations that are planning for such an event.

What Will Likely Happen?

But as shocking as the Capitol insurrection was, a full blown insurgency or civil war is still unlikely. These groups are rife with infighting. And as we saw at the Capitol, some of them are pretty poorly organized. Still, the threat is there and many people finally see it. So what will (probably) actually happen? With his social media mouthpiece finally muted, further direct agitation from Trump looks unlikely for now. Sadly, we are long past being able to reign in these groups. There are already very serious plans for explicitly violent marches on and before inauguration day. But nearly all levels of government are now solely fixated on this immediate problem. The response will likely be a sudden and major crackdown on platforms that allow coordination of these groups, arrests for those directly tied to organizing the event, and very close monitoring of known militant groups. The inauguration itself was already slated to be much smaller this year due to the pandemic, but will likely be even further scaled back to prevent crowds from forming. We will see preemptive mobilization of National Guard and police forces with a major security presence throughout DC and at state capital locations across the country (don’t forget that the Topeka legislative building in Kansas was a protest site that day too). The day will be tense for sure, but hopefully not tragic.

Where Do We Go From Here?

How do we pull back from the brink? Well you can't fact check a culture war. Far too many people have decided to believe that only Trump can save them. But I urge his supporters to ask themselves if it is worth tearing down everything just so you feel heard by someone whose policies routinely help the wealthy at your expense? What we are seeing is the inevitable result of continuing to follow Trump’s brand of radicalism. The president lost his election. No credible evidence of fraud has been found. The doctored YouTube video your cousin shared or the photo-shopped meme you saw on Facebook isn’t evidence. The Trump administration brought over 60 lawsuits to court and lost all but one of them (which claimed that poll watchers should get to stand closer to the ballots being counted). If there was real evidence, Trump’s lawyers would have brought these arguments up in court. Instead, when placed under oath in front of a judge (when there are actual consequences for lying), people like Rudy Giuliani specifically said “This is not a fraud lawsuit.” We all have to accept reality here. In 2016, I was upset and deeply concerned about the election results, but I accepted the loss and carried on. That’s the first step towards pulling back from the brink.

The much harder task will be the long term de-radicalization of millions of people who are actively plugged into streams of alternate reality. There are two completely different Americas now. I’ve posted before that getting out of your information bubble is critical to de-escalating this. Our elected officials must begin the process by denouncing the lies that have led to this violence. Ultimately, if we don’t stand up as one nation and condemn the rhetoric, lies, and popular movement that has led us to this moment, then we invite it to happen again. This isn’t about policy differences anymore, it’s about nothing less than the future of our nation as a democratic republic. We can go back to arguing about opinions like the role of government in healthcare or the importance of comprehensive election reform later. But we can’t move on and heal the country until we accept the basic facts of reality and put forward consequences for those who incited and engaged in this behavior. We can come back from this, but we need accountability for the leaders of this violence. Then we must extend a helping hand to those who were lured into following this madness. Their marginalization and suffering is real and understandable, but these actions are not. The world is watching us. History is watching us.