By now, you’ve probably already heard that there is a major event happening in Myanmar right now. The news is flooded with images of large scale protests, refugee camps, and aerobics videos with military trucks. But what exactly is the situation in Myanmar currently, and what does this month’s military coup mean for the average American? This week, we’ll tell you everything you need to know about Myanmar and what America’s options are for resolving the conflict.

Background & Recent History

Myanmar (also known as Burma) is a small nation in southeast Asia that borders Bangladesh, Thailand, Vietnam, and China. From around 1886, Myanmar was ruled by the British as a province of India. During the Second World War, a politician and military general by the name Aung San worked with British allied forces to defeat the invading Japanese imperialist military. Aung San then negotiated with the British to secure independence in 1948 (but was assassinated before this was finalized). Since independence, Myanmar has been divided by wars involving the nation’s various political and ethnic groups for decades. Myanmar’s centralized military ruled in what was essentially a dictatorship from 1962 - 2010. Aung San’s youngest daughter, Aung San Suu Kyi, had helped create the National League for Democracy (NLD) following pro-democratic protests in 1988. Myanmar held elections and the NLD won nearly 81% of the vote. However, the military rejected those results and imprisoned Suu Kyi. She remained as a prominent political prisoner on house arrest until popular pressure forced her release in 2010. By 2015, Myanmar had held elections again, with the NLD winning power and appointing Suu Kyi as the country’s leader.

However, the military never really gave up full control of the country. The military leadership wrote the constitution to ensure that the NLD could not further limit the military’s power without a super-majority of seats in parliament. Suu Kyi and the military remained at odds throughout her tenure in office from 2016 - 2021. Initially, most countries championed Suu Kyi’s leadership as a clear example of democracy prevailing over a military dictatorship. But the military’s brutal treatment of Myanmar’s Rohingya minority population, and Suu Kyi’s muted response to this ethnic cleansing program, soured much of her international fame.

So why did this happen now?

The military was defeated in a landslide and Suu Kyi’s party finally had enough votes in parliament to amend the constitution and further strip the military of its power. In addition, general Min Aung Hlaing was set to retire out of politics under the current constitution later this year. This brings us to February 1st, 2021. Just as the new governing council was about to be sworn in, Myanmar’s military forces surrounded the capital and arrested Suu Kyi along with numerous members of parliament. They declared a one year state of emergency and have shut off internet access for nearly the entire country. Major protests are occurring in the streets, but the military appears to be in complete control of the country, with general Min Aung Hlaing taking over Suu Kyi’s role as leader of the nation.

So what comes next? It’s tough to tell, but it certainly doesn’t look good for Myanmar’s democratically elected government. Popular demonstrations are taking place all over the country, but the military is firmly in control of most aspects of life. The military clearly won’t let go of power without a fight (which would basically happen between the civilians and the military). American options for restoring democracy are limited as well. The U.S. has spent most of the last decade backing Suu Kyi and her government (until the Rohingya crisis at least), so America doesn’t have much goodwill or leverage with the military. Just this week, President Biden announced new targeted sanctions on Myanmar’s military leaders. This would have the effect of cutting them off from accessing much of the global marketplace, but the effect is likely limited. China is a major player in the region and doesn’t seem to mind the coup much, so the effectiveness of American sanctions would be diminished by support from China to Myanmar’s military. The U.S. will certainly attempt to galvanize international support towards reconciliation, but we probably shouldn’t expect the military to suddenly release Suu Kyi and give up power willingly.

What does it all mean for you?

There are limited impacts on national security if Myanmar’s government moves closer to China and allows it’s economy to become increasingly absorbed by the Chinese communist party. But this crisis is mostly a test to see what America’s new position on declining democracies could be. To revert to the old ways of outright isolation and shunning of the military dictatorship would only result in further pushing Myanmar’s government away from American cooperation. That being said, it would be a betrayal of American values to simply accept the new government given the horrors of the Rohingya genocide and the military’s abandonment of democracy. Instead, the United States has an opportunity here to move beyond the old dichotomy of allies vs enemies. Instead, we should consider how to pressure the military to cease the Rohingya genocide, preserve basic protections for protesters, and maintain open access to Myanmar’s economic system. We certainly shouldn’t stop putting pressure on the military to restore democracy, but we need to be realistic about what America can actually accomplish in a situation like this. The last few decades have clearly demonstrated the limits of American power to shape the course of other nations. Hopefully, we have learned from these experiences and will use them to guide Myanmar towards a better (but perhaps not perfect) option.