This past week, Israel and Iran have been part of an escalating war involving mostly missile and rocket attacks. On Saturday night, the United States officially entered this conflict by launching a major bombing campaign against some of Iran’s most important sites that had the potential to create a nuclear weapon for Iran. So what does this all mean and is the world on the brink of World War III? Read our latest post to find out.
What’s the History Here?
We actually just recorded a podcast episode shortly before the U.S. bombing campaign, so give that a listen here for a more comprehensive background. But in short, the Iranian government has hated both Israel and the United States since the revolution which overthrew the government of Iran in 1979. For the past several decades, Iran has been trying to build a nuclear weapon (or at least build the capacity to assemble one within a few weeks). America has mostly tried diplomacy to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon (recall the Iran Nuclear Deal), but this was abandoned during the first Trump administration. Israel has almost always preferred a military solution, but had usually stopped short of directly bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities.
All that changed after the October 7th attack by Hamas which killed over 1,200 Israelis last year. This seems to have changed Israel’s approach to security and has made Israel much bolder. Iran had been attacking Israel for decades via terrorist groups like Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Assad’s regime in Syria. As a result, Israel invaded Gaza which severely degraded Hamas, but also killed tens of thousands of civilians. They destroyed nearly all of Hezbollah’s leadership which has incapacitated that group. And separately the Iran-friendly regime in Syria under Bashar al-Assad fell in December, meaning that all of Iran’s allies in the region were mostly destroyed. Because of this new reality, Israel decided that now was the best possible time to finally take out Iran’s nuclear facilities.
What Happened Now?
Israel started by bombing some of the primary sites in Iran where uranium was being enriched and nuclear weapons could potentially be made. But one site in particular, Fordow, was buried deep inside a mountain and could not be damaged by Israeli bombs. Only the United States has a weapon large enough to destroy that facility (and a plane big enough to carry it). With Iran’s nuclear capabilities already extremely weakened, the U.S. administration on Saturday decided to help Israel finish that job by bombing the Fordow site as well as several other important nuclear facilities. But this doesn’t mean that Iran’s nuclear program is completely destroyed. There are likely hidden sites where uranium is being stored and many of the scientists who helped build this program are likely still alive. The question now is whether Iran decides to abandon its nuclear program or double down and try to build a bomb immediately.
What Could Happen Next
Despite what social media seems to think, this is not likely to spiral into World War 3. Iran is extremely isolated in the region and nearly all of its major allies in the Middle East are gone or severely weakened. None of the major world powers are likely to come to Iran’s aid either since Russia is preoccupied in Ukraine and China is more concerned with keeping the oil flowing out of the region. There is also very little chance that the United States ends up sending significant military units directly to Iran for ground operations. Some special fores operations are possible, but we all know only too well how difficult and costly it is to invade a country in the Middle East and overthrow its government. For that same reason, it is unlikely that the U.S. or Israel would directly seek to overthrow the government in Iran. Though many people in Iran do not support the oppressive government, there is no clearly defined organization that could rise up to replace it. Instead, it’s more likely there would be bloody infighting among military factions and it’s very possible that whatever government comes next could be even worse than the current one.
But for now, we’re almost certain to see some type of Iranian retaliation. This could include missile strikes on American bases in the region (like what happened after the U.S. assassinated one of Iran’s top generals back in 2020) or Iran could try to blockade the critically-important Strait of Hormuz (which controls much of the world’s oil). Iran may also look to its remaining terrorist allies for support in attacking American military or civilian targets abroad. Iran can’t do much to threaten the American homeland, but it does have some capacity for cyber attacks. The extent of Iran’s retaliation depends mostly on how much the Iranian regime itself feels threatened. If they believe this strike is only a setback, it may tamper the response. If they believe this is the end of their nuclear program and possibly the end of their power in Iran, we should expect a much more dramatic response.
In all, a nuclear-free Iran is certainly a good thing, but it’s not yet clear if this move by the United States will end the Iranian nuclear program or merely set it back a few years. In the meantime, we’re likely to see a few rounds of strike and counterstrikes before this situation settles into a new normal.