I’m sure many of you avid blog readers have noticed my absence in posting lately. Fatherhood, world travel, and a very fulfilling but busy career have made it difficult to make time for regular foreign policy posts. However, a number of vociferous readers have requested an update post on the war in Ukraine. We’ll call one of these friends Kyle to protect his identity. So let’s take a look into this brutal conflict that is now well into its second year. And in the meantime, you can always follow my blog and podcast content for the nonprofit Global Minnesota at globalminnesota.org.
What’s the Situation?
Though Ukraine has successfully prevented a complete Russian takeover of the country and regained control of some significant sections of its territory, Russia still controls somewhere around 17% of the country. There were some major gains by Ukraine back in November just before the cold winter stopped all significant fighting. As things stalled out, Russia got to work building extremely strong defensive positions across the entire front which spans hundreds of miles. These overlapping defensive lines resemble those from the First World War, so there has long been the expectation that fighting would be very slow and bloody. Still, Ukraine knew it would have to break these defenses to take back its territory and ramped up for a major counteroffensive during the early part of this year.
Slow Going
Ukraine launched this counteroffensive a couple months ago, but the progress has been very limited. One of the main problems is the vast quantities of landmines that Russia has placed in front of its main defensive trenches. It takes a lot of time and careful maneuvering to clear landmines. The minesweepers are easy targets for Russian artillery and once a path is clear, Russia knows the exact place and path that Ukrainian troops will be advancing on and is often ready to attack those narrows corridors. Another big problem is the lack of Ukrainian air support. Neither side has complete air superiority, which is a big hindrance when you want to challenge a fixed position with a massive army. But despite this slow going, there are promising signs of Ukrainian advancement. What we need to remember is that Ukrainian troops are pushing through the thickest defenses right now. Once major breakthroughs take place, it’s much more likely we could see larger and more immediate territorial gains. This is part of the reason why the United States recently began supplying controversial cluster bombs to Ukraine to help them punch through these defenses. These bombs are controversial because they can often lead small unexploded bombs scattered throughout the countryside that can detonate years or even decades later. Ultimately, Ukraine knows and accepts these risks, so it is understandable why they have pushed so hard for this additional firepower.
Take to the Sea
So what is Ukraine’s strategy for victory? Right now, the land campaign appears to be focused on cutting Russia’s land bridge between the occupied sections in the eastern part of the country and the occupied south in Crimea. Looking at the map above, Ukraine’s main counteroffensive is making a mad dash to the Sea of Azov to cut off Russian positions in and around Crimea. Assaulting Crimea itself would be ridiculously hard since it is practically an island with only two extremely narrow choke points connecting it with the rest of Ukraine. If Ukraine can surround that region and cut it off from Russian resupply routes, there is a decent chance the Russian army there might be forced to surrender. As part of this, Ukraine has also been attacking the Kerch bridge which is the only road that directly connects Crimea with the Russian (not Ukrainian) mainland. We have also seen Ukraine attack more Russian ships around ports within Crimea. All of this is an attempt to win back Crimea through attrition and surrender rather than an outright assault.
What Comes Next?
Regardless of the outcome of this current offensive, Ukraine will almost certainly be fighting for at least a couple more years before any real sort of peace could start to materialize. While many are calling for ceasefires and peace plans, any ramping down of the conflict right now would surely benefit Russia rather than Ukraine. Russia would love nothing more than to solidify its current gains and buy more time to launch another offensive. Ukraine, on the other hand, knows that it needs the support of the world to succeed and that this support will diminish as soon as things settle down (regardless of how much territory remains in Russian hands).
The only long term solution to Ukraine’s security concerns is the removal of Russia from as much of its territory as possible and the promise of significant backing from the rest of the world if Russia were to start a new conflict after this current one. There is a lot of talk about Ukraine joining the NATO alliance which would grant the same protections that most of the rest of Europe enjoys. This is certainly a smart long term goal for both the United States and Ukraine to help prevent future wars of aggression by nations like Russia. Ukraine’s military has performed astoundingly well and clearly has the capabilities to fight alongside the rest of NATO. But NATO is more than just a military alliance, it also has political requirements to help ensure good, democratic governance within the alliance. Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy has shown tremendous bravery and capability at maintaining a newly democratic society while defending his country. But Ukraine still has a very recent history of significant corruption within the government. There are encouraging signs that Ukraine has turned the corner toward a stable, democratic government, but it will be important to watch the political transformation of the country once the war is over. NATO members like Hungary and Turkey are already challenging the alliance through their authoritarian leaders, so we should take care to ensure that Ukraine is not falling into this trap as well.
What it Means for You
I’ve written at length in previous posts about why it is so important for the United States to continue supporting Ukraine in this fight. But as the 2024 election cycle begins to ramp up, one of the biggest concerns people will hear is the cost of American support. To date, this spending has totaled over $75 billion for humanitarian assistance, financial support through loans, and military hardware. This is certainly a large number, but it totals only about 5% of the entire U.S. military budget per year. That’s not to criticize the size of the U.S. military budget. There are plenty of ways that waste could be trimmed from that budget, but there are also plenty of good reasons why it’s so high. The war in Ukraine is destroying Russia’s ability to wage war and challenge the United States throughout the world. Being able to severely limit our second largest geopolitical adversary for less than 5% of our military budget and without putting any American soldiers at risk is a deal that no responsible leader would walk away from. In all, remember that wars take time. Though we don’t feel the effects of it here at home, every person in Ukraine right now is still living with this monumental horror. We can’t solve all of the world’s problems, but walking away now would certainly make this problem a whole lot worse.