This past week marked 200 days into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine back in February. For the last several months, the war had ground into a brutal stalemate in Ukraine’s southern and eastern regions, with little movement on either side. But this all changed a few days ago as Ukraine launched a series of extremely effective counterattacks that have essentially routed the Russian army from major sections of the country. So how will this major breakthrough impact the war going forward? Let’s examine that and see what this means for the global fight for power and influence around the world.
But first, if you need a refresher, you can visit any one of several previous posts on the war in Ukraine including the initial outbreak of the full invasion and the start of the recent stalemate. So what’s happened in the past few days? The situation on the ground is still very fluid with large sections of the Russian army fleeing and Ukrainian forces pressing their advantages wherever possible. But it’s clear that the Ukrainian military found a weak spot in Russia’s defensive lines near the city of Kharkiv and broke through. Ukraine had led Russia to believe their main counterattack would come in the southern region of the country near the city of Kherson. While there has been a significant and somewhat successful Ukrainian attack in that area, the largest attack appears to be happening in the east. Ukraine’s army completely broke the Russian defense near Kharkiv City and has liberated many villages including the city of Izyum. Ukraine has also retaken most of Kupiansk which provided significant supply and communications support to Russia’s forces in the east. So far, Russia appears to have been completely driven from the Kharkiv region and Ukraine has taken back thousands of square miles of territory.
Ukraine led Russia to believe the main attack would occur near Kherson.
This is certainly welcome news for Ukraine, but how will this impact the overall war effort? Russia is taking massive casualties in this battle (either from being wounded or captured) which will further diminish their overall combat ability. In their haste to retreat, Russian forces have also left behind significant stores of supplies and weapons which can now be used by Ukraine. Eventually, Russian forces will probably be able to regroup to a more defensible position, but it will likely be a hastily constructed defense that could still be vulnerable to attack. Such a resounding success can also be deeply demoralizing for Russia’s other forces which can lead to further defections or surrender.
Now, this victory isn’t just important for Ukraine’s internal war position, it can also greatly boost the confidence of its allies abroad. One of the biggest supporters of Ukraine has been the European Union, but this support has begun to waiver somewhat as the stalemate drags on. While Europe has quickly moved to reduce its dependency on Russian oil and gas, it isn’t quite energy independent yet and is facing a long, cold winter without this energy to heat people’s homes. Ukraine’s biggest worry has been that the nations of Europe would get tired of the stalemate and pressure Ukraine to negotiate with Russia before it has time to take back all of its territory. But this major offensive proves that Ukraine can not just hold territory against the Russians, but can also take it back. We are already seeing signs that this move has reaffirmed European Union support for Ukraine at a very critical time. Russia’s embarrassing defeat further proves its failures to the rest of the world, while even some of it’s strongest internal supporters are starting to criticize the war. This is a big problem as well for China, it’s only major in this fight. China surely had hoped for a strong and powerful friend in its moves to counter the current international system.
Reclaimed territory could expand further as new defensive lines are not yet set.
But the war isn’t over yet. Russia still holds significant territory throughout southern and eastern Ukraine with a large army to back it up. Russia can still fight back and may look to perform a counterattack to try to stop or reverse Ukrainian gains. For now, the tide seems to have turned and Ukraine appears well on track to secure a major strategic and symbolic victory. As we look to this (and hopefully) many more victories for Ukraine, we also have to consider what these defeats could mean for the Russian nation. Mounting casualties, severe economic depression, and an oppressive dictator could begin to fracture the nation in unexpected ways. One of the biggest concerns in the medium-term future could be the possibility of the collapse of the Russian nation. Should this happen, it would likely be extremely destabilizing for Europe, Asia, and the rest of the world. While the recently departed Mikhail Gorbachev contributed to the relatively peaceful dissolution of the Soviet Union, there is no indication that Vladimir Putin would be as graceful or forgiving.