We’re just over fifty days since the Russian military began its devastating and unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But the conflict has already changed in significant ways. From the focus of the war, to the U.S. response, to the humanitarian need, we’re starting to enter a new phase in this brutal conflict. We’ve covered the basics of the initial invasion in our previous post, but let’s take this opportunity to examine what the next phase of the Russo-Ukrainian War could look like.
Military Maneuvers
Russia initially attempted a full-scale invasion and decapitation of Ukraine’s government. But this plan has been a complete disaster as Ukrainian forces and civilians have put up an amazing resistance and defense of their own country. It’s clear that the Russian military has suffered from severe problems with basic logistics, troop morale, and a military doctrine that emphasizes throwing more bodies into the meat grinder to try to get better results. Now, Russian forces have retreated from their initial invasion of Kyiv in the north and appear to be re-deploying to the eastern section of Ukraine known as the Donbas. You’ll recall from previous posts that this is the region of Ukraine that was already involved in a limited war since Russian President Vladimir Putin instigated a conflict back in 2014. In addition, Russia’s brutal campaign along the south of Ukraine and its total destruction of Mariupol is part of a strategy to form a land bridge between Crimea and the Donbas. This is clearly the major immediate priority for the Russian military now. Positions there are already firmly dug in, so Ukraine is likely in for a much longer war of attrition in this new phase. They’ll have to go on the offensive with much larger equipment then they used in the initial defensive phase of the war.
Ironically, the retreat seemed to go better than the actual invasion.
The US Response
From the first signs of Russian troop buildup along Ukraine’s border last year, the United States’ response has been a careful strategy to provide as much support for Ukraine as possible without drawing the United States into direct conflict with Russia. The Biden administration has done an extremely professional job at galvanizing the international community to isolate Russia. It is hard to overstate just how fractured and divided the European Union and the NATO alliance were in the past several years. Now, U.S. leadership in support of Ukraine has aligned these organizations with a clear and distinct mission. This renewed vigor within NATO has also helped spur nations like Sweden and Finland to join the alliance, which is a major blow to Russia’s aims of dissolving the alliance. In addition, America has been providing substantial behind-the-scenes intelligence support to Ukraine in conjunction with billions of dollars in military hardware. With the conflict now shifting to eastern Ukraine, the U.S. military has announced additional shipments of much heavier equipment. In short, the Biden administration has provided every possible measure of support just up to the point of sending U.S. forces. This is a wise move given the real possibility of escalation and the fact that most Americans will not support another direct American military conflict.
The recently sunk Russian flagship Moskva, seen here in puzzle form.
The Humanitarian Need
The humanitarian needs are also starting to shift now. Recent estimates show that nearly five million Ukrainians have left the country entirely, while another seven million are internally displaced. These are staggering numbers not seen in Europe since the Second World War. As Russian troops complete their retreat from western Ukraine, this may help stabilize some areas of the country and encourage limited numbers of people to return to their homes. Of course there is still a monumental humanitarian need that will continue to be addressed by governments throughout Europe and the U.S. However, there is another secondary impact to the war in Ukraine that will have lasting concerns for years to come. Both Russia and Ukraine provide significant amounts of grain and fertilizer to the world, which will dramatically increase food scarcity and food prices globally. Some countries in the Middle East and Africa import nearly 100% of their food from either Ukraine or Russia. Those nations may find it very difficult to resist the global calls for embargoes on Russia goods, especially since Ukraine’s food production is set to be cut by at least a third to half this year.
What’s the Likely Outcome?
Obviously, it’s impossible to know just yet. With the war moving to a potentially long phase of attrition in the eastern part of the country, it could be many months before a real breakthrough is made. However, Ukraine’s military will likely seek to quickly liberate the besieged city of Mariupol and take back recently captured territory before Russia gets too comfortable in those positions. Barring a miracle where the Russian army is completely defeated or withdraws, we may likely see some type of negotiated settlement to end the conflict. Perhaps Ukraine accepts Crimea and some majority Russian-speaking parts of the Donbas as part of Russia. But in exchange, Ukraine will likely seek European Union membership, keeps its military, and demand a full Russian military withdrawal from Ukraine. Ukraine will also look to obtain security guarantees from nations like the U.S. since full NATO inclusion seems unlikely for Ukraine right now. Either way, Russia is likely to be greatly diminished from this war. Their appearance as a strong power is clearly shattered given the extremely poor intelligence, logistics, and capabilities of their military. No matter what, things aren’t returning to normal for Russia anytime soon. They may get some marginal economic help from other nations including China, but at best their prospects look somewhat bleak for now.
Russia just got a lot weaker in this “special partnership.”
Why Should You Care?
We’ve said it before, but this war marks the beginning of a new phase in international relations. Though it has been kicked off by Russia, this era will most likely be dominated by a long-term competition between the U.S./E.U. and China. It’s critical that America send the right signals to Beijing to prevent the flare-up of any conflicts in the Pacific as well. So far, the United States has acted with clear indications of strength, but also careful restraint. The NATO alliance has made it clear that no inch of NATO territory will be taken by Russia without a full military response, but the situation in Taiwan is less obvious. China will not likely try to invade this island nation anytime soon, but it is closely watching what the world is doing in response to Russia’s military invasion. So far, the Biden administration has proven extremely adept at responding to the war in Ukraine in a way that prevents additional conflict from spilling over around the world. As this new phase of war drags on in eastern Ukraine, that line may become increasingly hard to walk.