The past few weeks have seen a flurry of major developments for one of the largest military alliances in human history. Meeting in Madrid, Spain last month, leaders from all thirty nations of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) made a number of key decisions that will shape the security environment of Europe for decades. This week, we’ll highlight the key takeaways from this groundbreaking summit and what it means for you.
Background: An Alliance Without A Cause?
We’ve covered the NATO alliance many times before, but for those of you who are unfamiliar with it NATO is a military alliance of 30 nations throughout most of North America and Europe. This was formed after the allied victory of the Second World War and was meant to serve as a direct counter to the expansion of the Soviet Union. Even after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, the alliance continued and even expanded because many of the former Soviet nations wanted protection from Russia. NATO is strictly a defensive alliance, meaning there is no real mechanism for these nations to start invading other countries without being attacked first. The key component of NATO is Article 5, which states that an attack on any NATO nation is an attack on all of them (and requires all member nations to defend whomever is attacked).
Over the years, serious questions have been raised about whether the alliance is still relevant. But Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine has suddenly and irreversibly changed that conversation. Recall that part of the reason for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was its attempts to join the European Union and NATO. Ironically, Putin’s invasion has dramatically revitalized the alliance and caused it to expand even further along the border with Russia. At this latest summit, NATO has not only regained its importance as the guardian of Europe against Russian aggression, it is on track to expand its membership with two powerful and strategically critical countries: Sweden and Finland.
The End of Baltic Sea Neutrality
Finland is a critically important nation because it shares a long border with Russia. This can potentially put NATO forces very close to key Russian cities like St. Petersburg. This is important because it helps to deter Russia from invading the Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. After Ukraine, these three nations would be the most likely target of Russian expansion. Looking at the map below, these nations would be key to giving Russia more direct access to the sea and would help the Russian mainland link up with the tiny Russian enclave known as Kaliningrad. Now, the Baltic nations will have a NATO ally in close proximity to the north to help in case of an invasion. For its part, Sweden brings a highly effective intelligence service and naval force to help entrench the Baltic Sea as predominantly NATO naval territory.
Both nations had tried to maintain a formal stance of relative neutrality against Russia during and after the Cold War. But all the while, they have done just about everything possible to prepare to join NATO should the need ever arise. They have adopted NATO’s standards for military hardware and even participated in joint training exercises. Once Russia invaded Ukraine and showed the potential costs of staying out of the alliance, it only took a few months (rather than several years) to start formally bringing those two nations into NATO.
A Major Force Escalation
In addition to expanding the alliance, the NATO nations agreed to dramatically increase their troop readiness in Eastern Europe as well. The United States committed to sending more soldiers to the region while also establishing a permanent military base in Poland. The rest of the alliance also increased their troop readiness commitments from around 40,000 to a total of nearly 300,000 troops. Ultimately, this is designed in part to help ensure that Russia doesn’t attempt to make any military moves while Finland and Sweden begin the formal ascension process into NATO. In order to join NATO, a nation must resolve its territorial disputes and not be in an active state of war. (Otherwise they could just try to invoke Article 5 and pull the whole alliance into their conflict.) This is one of the key ways that Putin has tried to prevent other countries from joining. When Ukraine started to get very serious about joining NATO, Putin invaded Crimea and provoked a war in Ukraine’s eastern regions to try to stall that effort.
Looking To The East
But for all of the talk about Russia, Ukraine, and the turmoil of Europe, the summit also featured an encouraging appreciation of the long-term problems posed by the rise of China. This year, NATO released a new version of their Strategic Concept which maps out the overall vision of the alliance for the next decade. A major part of this vision includes the work to counter the effects of China’s efforts to dominate large sections of the global economy, supply chain, and even in space. Though Europe has little to fear from a direct Chinese invasion, this new emphasis recognizes that China seeks to remake critical parts of the international system in its own image. China’s aims would have disastrous consequences for both the United States and Europe as it would encourage the spread of global authoritarianism and sideline the economic growth of NATO countries. In particular, the attendance of representatives from Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea demonstrate how the NATO alliance is looking to uphold the rules-based international system globally. The Quad alliance (which contains Australia, Japan, the USA, and India) will be a critical partner in this project.
Why Should You Care?
So what does it mean for you? Without sounding too dramatic, the NATO alliance is one of the foundations of international security. This military force (backed up in large part by the United States) helps ensure the peace and security of over a billion people and represents the combined economic power of a large portion of the world. The relative success of the United States and much of the global economy depends upon the stability that this relationship provides. Without it, war and conflict in Europe become more likely. Look no further than Ukraine for an example of this. The expansion of NATO likely won’t have any noticeable impact in the day to day lives of most people, but that is exactly the point. With two new members, NATO is that much more capable of ensuring the continued deterrence and defense of the economic and political freedom provided by the U.S.-led global system.