The decades-long dispute between the nation of Israel and the Palestinian Territories has certainly had a long list of atrocities, but the horrific violence committed by Hamas this month is a new low point. As a ground assault by Israel on Gaza appears inevitable, let’s take a moment to understand this latest round of violence and what it means for the wider Middle East region.
How Did We Get Here?
We’ve already put together several blog posts detailing the long and complicated history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that you can read here and here. But it’s important to remember a few key facts about this current crisis. First, the two main sections of Palestine, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, are geographically and politically separated. In 2006, the organization known as Hamas was elected to run Gaza, while the Palestinian Authority (PA) was elected to run the West Bank. Since then, Hamas and the PA have mostly been political adversaries since Hamas as taken a much more violent approach to dealing with Israel, while the PA has been more cooperative with Israel. Since 2007, Israel has imposed a strict blockade on the entire Gaza area which has severely limited the movement of people and access to basic food and supplies into the region. The recent attacks on civilians by Hamas and their tactics are completely unjustified. At the same time we cannot ignore that a population of over two million people has been deprived and confined within the Gaza Strip for nearly 15 years.
What Happened This Time?
Hamas launched a massive attack into Israel from Gaza. This is an unprecedented and large-scale, coordinated attack from the land, air, and sea which was previously thought to be impossible. The Hamas militants have engaged in indiscriminate killings of civilians, publicly executed people in gruesome ways, and taken hundreds of hostages back to Gaza. This is a stunning intelligence failure by the Israeli government. Some limited skirmishes have occurred in northern Israel by Hezbollah militants (a separate terrorist group residing mostly in Lebanon), but the West Bank has been mostly quiet for now. In response, Israel has launched missiles into Gaza and is preparing a full-scale invasion of the Gaza Strip.
Why Now?
The issue of Palestinian statehood and Israel’s approach to the Gaza blockade and settlement building in the West Bank has been mostly ignored by the rest of the world for several years. Major nations in the Middle East including the United Arab Emirates and Morocco have fully normalized their relations with Israel without any concessions towards the Palestinian cause. Now, it is heavily speculated the even Saudi Arabia is looking to normalize relations with Israel and was apparently close to finalizing a deal before this attack. This move by Hamas is most likely a last-ditch attempt to fundamentally change the situation before the rest of the Middle East basically abandons the Palestinian issue. This move may seem counterintuitive since Hamas would have to have known that a major Israeli response would occur. But from their perspective, Gaza and its people are slowly being deprived of basic needs anyway, so their strategy is to kick up a big enough conflict that Israel is forced to change their strategy one way or another.
Was Iran Involved in Some Way?
At this moment, it is unclear how much support Iran actually provided in the run up to this attack. The government has certainly voiced its clear support for this attack, but initial reporting that Iran directly assisted in planning it has not been fully proven. This has unfortunately led to an extremely misleading attack by some in the U.S. domestic political scene that the Biden administration has some how funded this action. Recently, the U.S. government completed a prisoner swap with Iran that involved unfreezing around $6 billion in Iranian assets. This is money that Iran made through oil revenue and is NOT U.S. taxpayer dollars. In addition, the money is not just given to Iran and has instead been transferred to banks in Qatar which can only spend the funds for humanitarian relief in Iran. Finally, not a single dollar of this money has even been spent yet, so the entire claim is false and completely disingenuous.
What Happens Next?
Israel is already responding with missile strikes on Gaza, but the military appears to be preparing for a full re-invasion of Gaza. The Biden administration is trying to negotiate a humanitarian corridor to allow civilians to flee to nearby Egypt, but it is unclear yet if that will be accomplished. Israel’s response is certainly understandable from a military perspective, but there is significant concern about the protection of civilians within Gaza. Israel’s response to past aggression by Hamas has received criticism for being somewhat reckless regarding civilian casualties, but now there is likely to be even less restraint as a ground war commences. At this point, it appears unlikely that this conflict will spill over into a major war throughout the entire region. Neighboring Egypt and Jordan signed peace deals with Israel long ago. Southern Lebanon might get involved in a limited way due to the presence of Hezbollah fighters, while Syria is still preoccupied with their own civil war and is unlikely to get too involved. As mentioned before, most of the Arab Gulf states are pushing for normalizing relations with Israel. This might stall that process, but probably won’t reverse it.
What Does It All Mean?
What little hope remained for a Palestinian state is essentially gone now. The Israeli settlements in the West Bank have slowly chipped away Palestinian land to the point that there could be no viable nation. Even though Hamas is responsible for this latest attack, it is all of Israel and the Palestinian people who will suffer as a result. Israel’s ground war will likely get very messy and lead to mass casualties for everyone involved. Meanwhile, nations like Saudi Arabia will probably continue to seek normalized relations with Israel while the possibility of a Palestinian nation becomes even more remote.
This is a tragedy in every sense. The actions of Hamas are deplorable and cannot be justified. At the same time, Israel’s policy of settlements in the West Bank and blockade of Gaza is problematic for a wider peace process. Both of these statements can be true at the same time. The current approach to Israel/Palestine is clearly not working. But just like the war in Ukraine, we can’t simply throw up our hands and tell one side to give up its land in favor of peace. Such a lazy take does not show a desire to seek a genuine solution, but instead betrays a desire to make the problem go away so people don’t have to hear about it anymore. It took a long time to get to this point and will take a long time to move away from it.