Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system blocking Hamas rocket attacks.
Once again, the ever-present tensions in the Middle East between Israel and the Palestinian territories have escalated to very visible signs of violence in the region. This latest round of escalations appears to have been sparked in part by the pending eviction of several more Palestinians from homes that would then be used by Israeli settlers. The continued process of Israeli settlement building in Palestinian areas remains one of the fundamental roadblocks to peace in the region. The longer this goes on, the more dire the Palestinian situation becomes. But this information isn’t exactly new. Rather than rehash the same history lessons we’ve already covered. It seems appropriate to dispel some of the rumors and bad takes that are circulating on social media these days. This week, let’s take a look at some hard truths that help explain just how intractable the Israel/Palestine issue has become.
This Is More Like An Occupation, Not A War
To talk about the situation in Israel & Palestine as though it were a conventional war between two opposing nations is to miss the core of the problem. As we’ve discussed many times before on this blog, Palestine more closely resembles an occupied region than any sort of functioning nation. Palestine is surrounded on all sides by Israeli security forces and settlements. They also have very limited access to independent trade or freedom of movement. Israel formally annexed the two main parts of Palestine (the West bank and Gaza Strip) decades ago, so there is little in terms of a formal international recognition of Palestine as an independent nation.
It’s also not accurate to think of this in terms of "who started what.” The origins of the crisis date back to the British Mandate following the First World War. Britain took control of the Palestinian region and began allowing for the mass migration and settlement of Jewish people into the region (predominantly from Eastern Europe). For the full history lesson, see this previous post. In short, the problem is both religious (Muslim vs Jewish groups fighting) and geographic (people fighting over the same sections of land). To make matters more complicated, “Palestine” is actually two areas separated by Israeli territory. The Gaza Strip runs along the coast and is controlled by the militant group Hamas (that’s the one that fires rockets). The West Bank borders the country of Jordan and is administered by the Palestinian Authority political party called Fatah (which mostly advocates for a nonviolent solution). Both Hamas and Israel have been the center of attention in the latest round of direct violence. But just because each major power engages in indiscriminate violence doesn’t mean we should “both sides” the issue…
Remember: Hamas controls Gaza (the green part on the left) and Fatah controls parts of the West Bank (the green part on the right).
There is Blame On Both Sides, BUt It Isn’t Exactly Equal
It’s true that Israel’s extremely aggressive airstrikes in places like Gaza kill many civilians. It’s also true that Hamas rocket attacks into Israel are reprehensible. But we shouldn’t pretend that every response has been proportional or equal. Israel is a fully developed, powerful nation with the region’s strongest military (not to mention nuclear weapons). They have regional power, international recognition, and access to resources and capital which they leverage to increase their own national security (as it their right as a nation). Their military capabilities include the Iron Dome missile system, which is able to track and destroy incoming rockets from Hamas militants with high success.
Palestine, on the other hand, is politically disadvantaged in international politics. It has very limited defensive or offensive capabilities and mostly resorts to either throwing stones (in the West Bank) or firing very unreliable rockets (in Gaza). Despite this asymmetry, Israel’s retaliation is almost always extremely strong and overwhelming. Over the years, Israeli airstrikes on suspected Hamas locations in Gaza have destroyed schools, hospitals, power stations, and even a building housing major international media outlets. In short, every few years Gaza city becomes newly demolished with little ability for international aid to reach it. Israel tightly controls everything entering or exiting the region and has instituted a full blockade along the Mediterranean coast for years. On the West Bank side, Israel continues to slowly chip away at Palestinian land ownership by evicting Palestinian residents to allow Israeli settlers to move in. Because of this, there are almost no great options for a resolution to this conflict anymore.
The AP news building in Gaza destroyed by Israeli airstrikes.
One State, Two States? Neither Are Realistic Right Now
We mentioned before that Palestine isn’t even a single entity anymore, and that presents huge problems for any sort of peace agreement. Israel insists that any peace agreement must be brokered with all of Palestine, but refuses to negotiate at all with Hamas. Since Hamas isn’t just going to go away in Gaza, it means that no peace agreement is really possible right now. The Palestinian Authority in the West Bank is far from any sort of reconciliation with Hamas, but Israel won’t negotiate with them either. Even if this changed and Israel began pushing a peace deal, there isn’t much of a viable solution that would solve the core problems of the crisis.
For example, let’s look at the mythical “two-state solution” that people often propose. This would mean that Israel remains it’s own sovereign nation, while the Palestinians get a sovereign nation of their own. Just looking at a map shows how unrealistic that would be. Israel’s settlement building program has broken up the West Bank into many isolated sub-sections. Those settlers are not going to leave (because many believe it is their divine purpose). Israel would never allow Palestine to have its own military to enforce borders, so a viable Palestinian nation would be little more than a country in name only.
Then there is the “one-state solution” that also gets thrown around. In this scenario, Israel would accept the right of Palestinians to live in their homes and grant them some form of citizenship within the nation of Israel. But such a scenario would be unacceptable to the many Palestinians who want outright independence. Furthermore, Israel could never actually grant full citizenship as it would completely upend the political structure of Israel’s governing body. Granting rights means granting the right to vote, and there are just way too many Palestinians out there for most Israeli politicians to accept that outcome (since they would be kicked out of power in a heartbeat). Speaking of domestic politics…
Domestic Politics Drives Everything
If you cared enough about Israel/Palestine to pay attention before seeing rocket attacks in your news feed, then you may have heard about the never-ending election hell that Israel is currently experiencing. In the past two years, Israel has had four separate elections to attempt to form a government. Israel works in a parliamentary system, meaning that multiple political parties must band together to form a coalition government (whichever groups can form a majority get to govern and pick the Prime Minister). There are lots of different parties, but most of them are deeply divided and unable to work together. The conservative political party Likud is the largest, but isn’t large enough to govern on its own. The leader of this party is none other than the longest serving Prime Minister in Israel’s history, Benjamin Netanyahu.
Wait, isn’t that the guy who is under criminal indictment in Israel? Yes, “Bibi” has been indicted and faces potential criminal charges for a variety of corruption allegations. After his latest failure to bring together a coalition government (there have been several), it was starting to look very grim for his continued political aspirations (and ability to avoid jail). So this latest escalation offers Netanyahu with the perfect opportunity to attempt to shore up his own political support. His own statements indicate that he has no intention of ending Israel’s airstrikes anytime soon. So far, the fighting has appeared to work to his advantage. But surely the United States could put pressure on Netanyahu to stop escalating the situation right?
The United States Can’t Really Solve This Problem
If the last two decades have taught Americans anything, it should be that there are limits to America’s ability to solve complex geopolitical problems. It’s certainly true that the United States continues to provide significant military and financial support to Israel, often looking the other way when extreme actions are taken against the Palestinians. But the U.S.-Israeli relationship has been strained for many years. Like Saudi Arabia, Israel isn’t exactly a perfect ally. Their recent attacks on Iran’s nuclear research facilities threatened to derail the renegotiation of peace talks. Israel’s policies often directly contradict American goals in the region, so there is often a significant divergence of interests.
So what can the U.S. do? Probably not much. Ending all military support could jeopardize long-standing peace agreements with Arab nations. Part of the $4 billion that the United States provides to Israel is a condition of the Camp David Peace Accords, which makes it extremely difficult to undo without scraping the decades-long peace deal between Israel and some of its Arab neighbors. If the United States was serious about pushing for a peaceful solution, it would probably attempt to place conditions on this military aid to Israel. But even that probably won’t actually change anything. Israel’s Jewish identity and full land ownership of the region is central to many Israelis’ sense of national identity. Extreme factions have gained significant power in Israel and have been very vocal about their desire to continue expelling Palestinians. In their view, asking them to give up part of this land to Palestine would be like asking Americans to cede half of Texas to Mexico. Religion plays a huge part here, but land ownership and the basics needed for survival are the biggest drivers of violence. Multiple sides want the same sections of land and are unwilling to budge. This is part of the reason why…
The Hardest Truth: Most oF Those In power Aren’t That Interested In Peace
The hardest truth of all is simply that most of those in power in Israel (and many in power in Palestine) aren't all that serious about an actual peace plan. To the extent they are serious, they place significant requirements and concessions from the other side before talks could even begin. Israel has the capacity and resources to provide for its own safety while still recognizing the sovereign rights of Palestine, but has little political incentive to make peace. On the other side, the Palestinians have seen so much horror and bloodshed that there is no viable way for them to trust Israel in a meaningful peace deal. Peace treaties and nonviolence have largely failed, so many Palestinians don't see any value in nonviolence.
And so, Israel will continue to slowly whittle away at what’s left of a Palestinian state. The Palestinians will continue to be plagued by infighting while attempting to scrape an existence out of what Israel has left for them. Meanwhile, neighboring Arab nations continue to move on from what they privately view as a lost cause. And the United States will remain distracted by larger issues that directly threaten its national security such as the global undermining of democracy and the rising influence of China. This wasn’t inevitable, but now the situation is nearly unavoidable unless major systemic changes happen within Israel’s political power structure.
That sounds depressing (and it is), but just because the end result may seem like a foregone conclusion, does not mean that this is a lost cause. The United States can still pressure for a ceasefire and an end to continued settlement building and evictions as a starting point. So how can you personally help? Here are resources you can use to learn more about the situation and organizations that provide support to civilians devastated by the conflict. We probably can’t solve everything, but we can at least lessen the suffering wherever possible.