The results of the 2020 US presidential election are now obvious. America will have a new leader in 2021 and with it a dramatically different view on foreign policy. Nearly all of the major world leaders have congratulated president-elect Joe Biden and are beginning to prepare their nation’s foreign policy in anticipation of this change. It has always been true that the primary goal of any nation’s foreign policy is the protection of that nation’s people from outside interference or attacks. As with so many things in American government, the office of the presidency has seen itself growing more and more powerful as Congress continues to shift more of its responsibilities to the executive branch. But the Constitution only gives Congress the power to authorize budgets (not that they usually cut military spending) and declare war (again, very unlikely to happen). So much of the power of foreign policy lies almost exclusively with the president. This week, we’ll examine what American foreign policy and national security will probably look like under President Biden and what it could mean for you.
Clearly Congress doesn’t tend to decrease things defense spending.
Return To A New Normal
The Biden campaign’s slogan throughout most of 2020 was “Build Back Better.” It appears that president-elect Biden is making this a central theme of his foreign policy as well. It’s not exactly a return to the Obama foreign policy, but a return to a more normal process for conducting foreign policy that doesn’t rely solely upon the president’s Twitter feed. For the past four years, the United States under President Trump has been trashing our traditional allies and voicing support or admiration for adversaries such as China, Russia, and even North Korea. In the meantime, America’s main diplomacy arm in the State Department has seen record resignations and firings, with many positions going completely unfilled. Top intelligence officials in the Department of Defense have been replaced by unapologetic political appointees and conspiracy theorists. In this vacuum of strong American leadership, rival nations like China and Russia are stepping in to attempt to replace American influence.
What will a President Biden do? He has already stated that he will immediately rejoin major multinational agreements such as the Paris Climate Accords and will also look to restart or rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal. The Trump administration’s “Maximum Pressure” campaign has not succeeded in encouraging Iran to de-escalate (in fact it has had the opposite effect). The Biden administration has also signaled its intent to return to the World Health Organization to allow the United States take the lead in fighting the global pandemic while reforming this United Nations organization. Biden has also stated that he will host a “Summit of Democracies” to restore America’s commitment to democratic principles and the rule of law. This summit would seek to galvanize support among America’s traditional allies to push back against the rising tide of authoritarianism all over the world. Finally, Biden has stated his commitment to a major restaffing program for the Department of State and our multiple intelligence agencies. If the past is any guide, this will likely be a return to the norms of hiring experienced career officials instead of inexperienced personal friends.
We probably don’t need this guy running a shadow foreign policy anymore.
Great Power Conflict
Gone are the days when fears about terrorism and conflicts in the Middle East drove American foreign policy. Now, Washington D.C. is all about great power competition, specifically between the United States and China (though sometimes also Russia). But this power isn’t just about regional military supremacy or power projection around the world. Both China and Russia are attempting to promote competing worldviews to that of the United States. Instead of liberty and justice for all, Russia promotes a worldview that essentially says “everyone is corrupt, but Russia is better." China’s worldview is essentially “why have human rights (Western rights as they call them) when we command the economy and give you everything you could ever want?” Just as we in America export our freedoms and values abroad (to limited success), so too are Russia and China attempting to gather more nations to their sides to bring down the status of the United States.
So what will President Biden do about this? His administration will likely place additional sanctions on Russia and attempt to isolate Putin for his continued attempts at election interference, targeted assassinations, and aggressive actions in Belarus and Ukraine. He will continue to contain China as previous administrations have attempted to do, but will probably be more steady and directed in his approach than the meandering (and sometimes contradictory) policies from the Trump administration. China is dominating large sections of the developing world including Latin America and Africa. One way China does this is by giving poorer nations loans for massive infrastructure programs for things like ports and bridges. Then, China exploits the predatory terms of these loans and seizes the roads, ports, and bridges that they have built. Biden’s foreign policy will look to invest heavily in developing nations to allow U.S. companies to partner with African and Latin American companies rather than exploit them. It’s a policy that has been tested before with outstanding results for both the average American and citizens of other nations. The data proves that investing abroad through corporations, nonprofits, and American government programs like USAID provides tangible benefits for all Americans here at home. Every dollar that is invested abroad provides substantial dividends to American growth and prosperity in the form of business revenue, technological achievements, and jobs. Ultimately, pushing back on China and Russia will require effort in all sectors such as developments in space, cyber/information security, military advancements, and economic competition.
The Existential Threat: Climate change
Whether you acknowledge it or not, Climate change is real and it is happening now. For proof, look no further than the companies and insurance adjusters that are already already pricing the effects of Climate Change into their decisions. While the United States has spent the past four years pursuing a policy of “energy dominance” in the waning oil and natural gas industry, China has attempted to position itself as a global leader in green energy technology (even though they pollute more than America by far). We need to strike a balance on this topic since the United States will long remain both a major energy provider and also major polluter.
What will the Biden administration do? As stated before, Biden has already pledged his commitment to re-enter the Paris Climate Accords. This is mostly symbolic since the Accords are nonbinding, but it does send a critical message that the United States is taking this issue seriously once again. His platform has also placed a strong emphasis on investing in leading green energy technology to create new business and manufacturing jobs here in America. This also has the dual purpose of increasing our economic competitiveness with China in the great power competition of this century. Finally, just like the “Summit of Democracies,” Biden has proposed a global Climate Change summit to attempt to coordinate international cooperation in fighting this crisis and look to restore American leadership on this issue. To the average American, the effects of attempting to combat and limit the effects of Climate Change are substantial. By preventing some of the most severe effects of this problem, we can mitigate issues like frequent severe storms, unstable weather patterns, and mass refugee migrations caused by rising sea level.
And you thought immigration was a problem before…
The Bottom Line
Rhetoric matters, but results matter more. For four years, the U.S. government has mostly signaled that the United States holds little interest in promoting American leadership in the rest of the world. Promoting America’s foundational values and our global economic competitiveness only works abroad when we live those values at home. But it’s going to be hard no matter what a Biden administration does. We have shown that America still has isolationist tendencies and is prone to radically changing its policy every few years. America’s commitments have been shown to be flawed at best. To restore this will require a renewed dedication by average Americans in the importance of America’s leadership abroad. We will also need congressional action that reinforces the foreign policy priorities of American economic leadership that truly makes America great. The Biden administration looks promising for a renewed commitment to this view of what America’s foreign policy should be. By investing in a global order that promotes American ideologies and economic interests, the Biden administration may be able to succeed in doing what American foreign policy has almost always sought to do: put America first, but not America alone.