Of all the issues swirling around the 2020 U.S. presidential election, perhaps the most serious is the integrity of the election itself. Following the disaster of the Iowa Democratic caucus earlier this month, that issue has once again entered the spotlight. But technical problems such as those faced in Iowa are not the only threats facing the general election in November. There is an active disinformation war happening right now that will undoubtedly impact events from now until Election Day. This week, we’ll summarize some of the biggest problems shaping the global disinformation war.
Problem 1: Lack Of Technical Experience & Training
When rolling out new technology, it seems like a basic requirement that your user base knows how to use it. This was apparently not the case for many locations in Iowa. Some users were unable to download the Iowa caucus reporting app due to poor service, while others could not understand how to use it to report results. This same type of scenario has played out with election setup teams all over the country. Though improvements have been made, many election officials still have received little training on how to handle secure data or prevent malware and password phishing attacks. This continues to leave the system vulnerable to exploitation by both foreign and domestic cyber attacks.
PROBLEM 2: Conspiracy Theories & Disinformation Campaigns
By now we are all well aware of the Russian disinformation campaign which took place during the 2016 election, but disinformation campaigns are continuing all the time throughout 2020 as well. The Iowa caucus was no exception. Within hours of the results being delayed, social media sites became overwhelmed with unsupported claims about the Democratic National Committee sabotaging the app. What almost certainly started out as a series of poor choices and technical mistakes quickly began to form a false narrative of active manipulation by the Democratic party.
We’re seeing more and more claims of election rigging by both the President and supporters of some Democratic candidates. Let’s be clear here: it is nearly impossible to actually rig American elections. They are far too de-centralized and most of them use paper ballot backups. It is nearly certain that the President will try to claim a rigged election if he loses in November, but the Democratic party may have to contend with its own claims of election meddling. After all, it is looking increasingly likely that no candidate will win a majority of delegates for the Democratic nomination. If that happens, you can expect more claims of manipulation when candidates try to win over each other’s delegates before or during the national nominating convention.
PROBLEM 3: BAD FAITH ACTORS
This problem is certainly not new to politics, but appears to have increased in severity in recent elections. Throughout social media spheres, people looking to sabotage their political opponents have aided in the spread of conspiracy theories and disinformation. In Iowa specifically, supporters of the president actually discovered the Iowa Democratic Party’s telephone help line and clogged the phone lines with fake calls to cause further election chaos. Such actions go beyond simple politics and are meant to disenfranchise members of an opposing party. In other instances, people are publishing false information about voting by mail or text message to further confuse voters and suppress their turnout. Unfortunately, this behavior is likely to increase even more throughout 2020 as each side views losing the election as an existential threat to the country.
PROBLEM 4: Direct Cyber Attacks
Fortunately, it doesn’t appear that the chaos in Iowa was caused by hacking. But the real concern isn’t necessarily the hacking of actual vote counts. The biggest concern is that foreign agencies or domestic bad faith actors could engage in operations that try to cast doubt on the results or cause chaos on election day. For instance, electronic voter rolls could be tampered with, so people could show up to try to vote on election day and be denied. Or cyber attacks could cause power outages on election day, suppressing voter turnout. More than anything, these cyber attacks in combination with coordinated disinformation campaigns are the nightmare scenarios for adverse events that could impact the 2020 election.
List of cyber attacks by industry against the U.S. (And these are just the ones we know about)
The Bottom Line
It is nearly impossible to actually hack an election, but it is insanely easy to cast doubt on one. The United States is extremely vulnerable to this type of interference from both foreign and domestic actors. The best thing each one of us can do to prevent this is to understand the nature of this attack. We must be ready to accept election results that we don’t like unless there is obvious and verified reason to believe otherwise. Always take a careful look at the sources of your news and information, especially when it confirms your preexisting biases. Truth and verifiable fact are essential to a working democracy, and democracy only works when people believe in it.