Helicopters evacuating the embassy in Kabul as Taliban forces approach.
The sudden and tragic fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban is both heartbreaking and in some ways not entirely unexpected. There was always the question of whether or not the Afghan military forces could hold up against the Taliban after an American withdrawal, but the complete and immediate surrender of every major city and region to the Taliban has surprised nearly everyone. Despite this harsh reality, it is clear that the United States is committed to completing the withdrawal even if it means complete control of the country by the Taliban. As the United States and Afghanistan look back on twenty years of conflict, democracy, and nation-building, the successes and failures of this endeavor are laid bare. This week, we’ll look back at America’s longest war and dispel some bad takes about the fall of Afghanistan.
Who Is To Blame?
Ultimately, most everyone in American society knew this was a possibility and chose to withdraw anyway. The signs were clear to anyone paying attention that the Afghanistan National Army (ANA) was not fully ready to directly take on the Taliban, but the calls from the American people for complete withdrawal continued. We should certainly mourn this outcome. But to those wishing that the ANA had put up a fight, would a devastating and protracted civil war really have been better if it meant more death, destruction, and probably the same result in the end? This difficult calculation is likely one of the reasons the ANA collapsed so quickly in the face of Taliban advances.
Everyone is to blame for this. President Bush receives blame for pivoting to Iraq before the work in Afghanistan was done. President Obama receives blame for failing to capitalize on the successes of his troop surge in 2009. President Trump receives blame for negotiating a peace deal with the Taliban, but not the government in Kabul. And President Biden receives blame for the poor execution of Trump’s peace deal. On the Afghanistan side, the corruption within that government and their inability or unwillingness to provide accurate intelligence to the United States made it nearly impossible to make informed decisions. Finally, the American people are to blame for continuing to demand the withdrawal of military forces when Afghanistan was clearly unable to defend itself. The problems were systemic from the very beginning. This is on all of us.
Taliban fighters in the Presidential Palace in Kabul
Why Did This Happen?
Hundreds of books will be written on this topic. But perhaps one of the core reasons for the failure of the United States to create a lasting democratic nation in Afghanistan is the lack of a central collective identity in Afghanistan. America attempted to impose a classic nation-state idea on a group of people who often didn’t share the same cultural, tribal, ethnic, or linguistic identity. Instead, the shared religious identity offered by Islam provided a much more compelling template to many people. In addition, the speed with which the ANA completely dissolved highlights just how hollow the actual military force was. No amount of money, weapons, or support staff can overcome a military force that simple does not want to fight.
This also serves to show the limits of military power and the futility of imposing a style of government on another people. The American military is excellent at winning conflicts on a battlefield, but falls short in securing the peace because winning a war and governing a peace are two completely separate things. We can’t expect a military solution to solve a non-military problem. However, the failure in Afghanistan certainly doesn’t mean that the United States has suddenly lost it’s status as a global power. The United States didn’t suddenly lose the Cold War after its failure in Vietnam. The global security and financial system still depends upon the success of the United States. This episode is a blow to America’s image, but not to the underlying reality of American global hegemony.
Was It All A Waste?
In our collective grief, it is easy to submit to pessimism and think that the entire American endeavor in Afghanistan was a complete waste. After trillions of dollars, thousands of American lives lost, and countless thousands of Afghan lives lost, this sentiment is understandable. But it is critical to remember that the United States brought twenty years of ideas like democracy and women’s rights to the people of this nation. For twenty years, millions of people did not have to live under the oppression of the Taliban. They enjoyed basic human rights and dignity. That’s a generational change in mindset for many that will hopefully last and temper the brutality of the Taliban.
This was a military failure, but we shouldn’t let this become an excuse for American withdrawal from engagement and development throughout the world. Much of the development aid that America spent in Afghanistan ultimately did not achieve the desired end result, but it still provided transformative gains for millions throughout the country. America’s international development aid still does tremendous good, especially when it is trying to create a tangible human wellness benefit rather than a political or military outcome. It’s easy to focus on the shortcomings, but just ask the millions of people who have benefited from American development aid if it’s worth it for them. As we’ve said many times before, these investments in turn help promote the American economy as well as our national security and global public health.
Afghan refugees fleeing on U.S. military planes.
What Happens Next?
The next few days and weeks will be critical to the future of Afghanistan and the lives of many of its citizens. But the most important thing the United States can do right now is to immediately help evacuate as many refugees as possible. Thousands of brave Afghan men and women throughout the country have risked their lives (and the lives of their families) to help American soldiers and they deserve the safety and security that we promised them. We can work quickly to cut through the bureaucratic process of issuing visas and begin transporting people to safety right away. Ultimately, we owe at least this much to the people being left behind in Afghanistan. Here are some links to reputable organizations that can help: