Will Iran’s New President Change Anything?

Iran’s new president electing (presumably) voting for himself.

As the polls began to close on election day in Iran this past month, few people had any real doubt as to who would serve in one of the most influential positions of Iran’s radically conservative government. To be clear, the president of Iran doesn’t actually have as much power as the lofty title would imply, but the election of Ebrahim Raisi demonstrates a glimpse into the inner workings of Iran’s domestic political structure. As one of the most hardline conservative figures in Iranian politics, his election shows the government’s desire to move away from moderate leaders like Iran’s current president Hassan Rouhani. So how will this new president change the course of Iranian politics? This week, we’ll take a look at the major issues impacting Iran and what it all means for you.

But First, How Do Iranian Elections Work?

Most Americans tend to think of Iran as an absolute dictatorship ruled by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. It’s true that the Ayatollah does have the final say in nearly all matters of importance in Iran, but there is at least the pretense of some democratic behavior in Iran (at least until this most recent election). The Parliament, President, and the Assembly of Experts are all determined by population election. These institutions then appoint the members of various other power centers in Iran including the president’s cabinet, and the Supreme Leader. However, let’s not mistake this for an actual free and fair democracy. After all, every candidate for elected office is vetted by the Guardian Council. This group is predominately focused with perpetuating Iran’s “continuous revolution” and so they quickly disqualify any candidates who would pose a threat to the radically conservative nature of Iran’s government. This brings us to Iran’s latest presidential election.

So Iran holds elections, but it isn’t exactly a democracy. Leading up to this year’s election, every major rival of Raisi was disqualified just prior to the vote. This created widespread disaffection throughout Iran and led to the largest election boycott in Iran since the 1979 revolution. In previous years, Iran held up its high voter turnout to try to enhance the legitimacy of its rigged system. But now, with less than half of Iran’s eligible voters participating, even that shred of hollow legitimacy is starting to lose its appeal among many in Iran.

Rouhani Is Out, Raisi Is In

Iran’s current outgoing president Hassan Rouhani is generally considered a “moderate.” Basically, this means he is still very anti-American, but is at least willing to take a more diplomatic approach to many issues. The largest among these issues was his negotiation of the Iranian Nuclear Deal (also known as the JCPOA). Rouhani and his fellow moderates were humiliated because they backed the deal which the Trump administration ended back in 2018. Raisi and his fellow hardliners had been saying for years that the United States could not be trusted to make a deal, and Trump’s unilateral withdrawal provided them with substantial political ammunition against Rouhani.

So who is Ebrahim Raisi? Raisi has served in a variety of judicial positions throughout his career including the Attorney General and Chief Justice. He also served on a prosecution committee during the early years of the revolution which was responsible for the deaths of thousands of political prisoners. He is very experienced at using the coercive power of Iran’s government to further the regime’s own political ends. It is also very likely that Raisi is using this position to advance himself to the highest position in Iranian government, that of the Supreme Leader (Ayatollah). This position is appointed by the Assembly of Experts for life and the current Ayatollah Khamenei is in his mid 80s. Khamenei may not survive past the next few election cycles, and Raisi has significant popular support within the Assembly of Experts.

What’s Next For Iranian-American Relations?

What does this all mean for Iran? In general, not much is likely to change. The regime is still extremely anti-American and the position of president doesn’t hold nearly as much power in Iran as it usually does for other nations. Iran will continue fighting proxy wars against Saudi Arabia and exporting radicalism throughout the Middle East. But the contentious nature of this latest election comes with widespread disapproval of the Iranian political system by the Iranian people themselves. There are significant domestic problems due to economic sanctions and a massive housing crisis. If not much is likely to change with Raisi’s presidency, this could start to push many in Iran to the brink.

What does this mean for Americans here at home? One of the biggest questions is around the future of the Iran Nuclear Deal. This deal, originally implemented under the Obama administration and then terminated under Trump, agreed that the United States would stop some of its strongest economic sanctions if Iran agreed to severe limits and monitoring of its nuclear weapons program. Iran would greatly benefit from sanctions relief and wants to get back into the global market. Despite the strong opposition to the deal from hardliners like Raisi, it appears that renewing the deal in some form is still possible. Raisi has indicated that they are open to returning to the deal, though they are trying to get the United States to remove sanctions before restarting negotiations. However, this doesn’t change Iran’s other problematic behaviors such as their campaign to export radicalism or their ballistic missile program. As with the previous deal, those are not up for discussion under this current negotiation.

The Bottom Line

The election of Raisi isn’t likely to change much about Iran’s behavior or US-Iranian relations. Even something as controversial as the Iran Nuclear Deal has a decent chance of being renegotiated since Iran is desperate for sanctions relief. Indeed, Iran’s government has always tried to ensure that elections can never fundamentally change the course of Iranian politics. However, this latest election does help demonstrate just how dissatisfied many Iranians are with their government. Major domestic problems continue to plague Iran, but its unlikely that incoming president Raisi can do much to alleviate these problems without a fundamental change in Iran’s approach to its domestic and foreign policy. And if anyone has the power to make that change, it is the Supreme Leader, not the president.