The winter holidays are often a time for family gatherings, reflections on a year gone by, and planning for potential military invasions of eastern European territory. The past few weeks have sparked concerns of a significant escalation in hostilities in the beleaguered nation of Ukraine. The Russian military has recently been engaged in an alarming mobilization of military forces near its long border with Ukraine. So is a direct Russian invasion of Ukraine imminent, or is this all just political posturing? This week, we’ll examine the escalating crisis in Ukraine and what it could mean for you.

But First, Why Is Ukraine So Important To Russia?

During the height of the Cold War, the Soviet Union took great pride in its vast geographic empire which spanned across much of northern Asia and eastern Europe. One of the most prized possessions in this empire was the land known as “little Russia” (modern day Ukraine). Ukraine has long had distinct cultural and linguistic differences from Russia, but the Soviet Union went to great lengths to attempt to erase this history that it saw as a threat to unified Soviet rule. Ukraine gained full independence in 1991 after the fall of the Soviet Union, but Russian President Vladimir Putin seems intent on dominating the region once again. But it’s not just about Russian cultural domination of Ukraine. Historically, Russia has long sought a permanent warm water port for military and commercial purposes. The Ukrainian region of Crimea (which was gifted to Ukraine from Russia in the 1950s) is one such port.

Crimea River

So in 2014, Putin decided once and for all to take back the region of Crimea and its ports. Throughout the 2000s and 2010s, Ukraine had been making serious moves towards joining the European Union and the NATO alliance. As we’ve mentioned before, the NATO alliance was critical to defending Europe against the Soviets during the Cold War and has remained a major military force that is focused heavily on European security objectives. Ukraine began escalating its movements towards joining the European Union following the removal of Ukraine’s pro-Russian president in the 2014 Revolution. In response, Russia pushed back by annexing Crimea and helping to instigate a simmering war in Ukraine’s eastern regions. This war has raged for nearly seven years throughout the two regions of Crimea and Donbas (in eastern Ukraine). Though Russia continues to deny its direct involvement in this war, it’s obvious that Russian military forces are directly taking part. This is why it’s not really accurate to ask “Will Russia invade Ukraine?” and it’s more accurate to ask “Will Russia invade more of Ukraine?” As the war continues to drag on, it’s clear that Russia will go to great lengths to prevent Ukraine from solidifying alliances with the West.

Chicken Little (Kyiv)

It’s easy to see why the sky might be falling in Ukraine. Over the past few weeks, the Russian military has made obvious mobilizations near the border with Ukraine. This includes not just tanks and troops, but also some of the logistical supplies that would be necessary for a long-term fight. What’s different this time is that Russia is making no real efforts to hide their actions. When Russia annexed Crimea, it did so using unidentified soldiers without Russian combat uniforms so Russia could claim deniability. Naturally, these latest actions were meant to be seen by the whole world. That’s why Russia recently presented a list of demands in exchange for a removal of these troops. The biggest of these demands is that Ukraine and no other eastern European nation ever be allowed into the NATO alliance (at least not without Russian approval). Of course, the United States and Ukraine quickly rejected this unrealistic request. Russia is unlikely to back down without some type of concession, so the Biden administration has proposed additional discussions to try to buy some time. Any additional invasion is likely to occur in the early part of 2022 as that is when conditions are most conducive to fighting. But Ukraine itself has also mobilized significantly in the past several years, so any direct invasion would likely not be an easy victory for Russia.

Why Should You Care?

So what does it matter if a country halfway around the world gets invaded by a wannabe global power seeking to relive the old Soviet glory days? Well a full Russian invasion of Ukraine would mark another significant blow against the established norms of modern international relations (mainly the one where we all agree that invading each other’s territory is a dick move). It also has the potential effect of undermining trust in America’s ability to hold back rising authoritarianism from Russia (and by extension China). But there are also significant potential economic problems. Russia controls important natural gas pipelines that provide much of Europe’s energy. If an invasion occurs, Russia could easily throttle parts of Europe’s energy market and cause a global energy crisis. And if Ukraine were to fall completely to Russian influence, it would likely force American companies out of those marketplaces which harms the overall American economy.

What Comes Next?

Still, a full-blown ground invasion of Ukraine is (probably) fairly unlikely. War is always unpredictable and the conflict would likely be far messier for Vladimir Putin’s own domestic politics than he would like. If anything, we could see Russian forces move further into the already-contested areas of Ukraine (which wouldn’t fundamentally change the situation since Russian troops are already there in “secret”). Very few people expect the United States to commit military forces to the actual fight since public opinion is not likely to support starting yet another major conflict. Instead, we will likely see a continuation and escalation of American support for Ukraine’s defense. Several nations bordering Ukraine are NATO members, so a mobilization of troops in those countries could also send a message of resolve to Moscow. Ultimately, this conflict shows an even darker side to the rise of authoritarianism that we have seen around the world. These movements might start with internal takeovers, but they are rarely satisfied with only domestic political conquest.