The Ukrainian army’s recent gains in Russia’s war has sparked new concerns of nuclear escalation. Putin’s army looks weaker each day, so it’s not surprising he has once again resorted to issuing nuclear threats. But what are the actual chances of this catastrophe? Will Ukrainian success on the battlefield lead to global annihilation? This week, let’s examine these threats and what a nuclear strike might look like.
Strategic Vs Tactical Nuclear Weapons
A key distinction we should make right away is the difference between strategic and tactical nuclear weapons. Strategic nukes are the ones that everyone thinks of when mentioning nuclear war. Those are the giant, city-destroying weapons that are launched from land-based silos or submarines and are designed to annihilate the entire world. Even in this current conflict, their use is considered almost unthinkable because nobody wins this type of exchange (including Russia).
However, there are smaller weapons that could be used against limited targets. These are nuclear devices that can be launched from much smaller rocket systems or even artillery pieces. They are considered tactical nuclear weapons, meaning they could be used to destroy a single base or punch a hole in an army’s defensive lines. No nation has used this type of bomb before because it would be seen as a dangerous escalation that can lead to the use of those larger, strategic weapons.
Could It Actually Happen?
It is still incredibly unlikely that a world-ending nuclear catastrophe would occur right now, even if things escalate dramatically between Russia and the United States. There are a thousand steps of escalation between Russian and American soldiers firing at each other and a general nuclear exchange. After all, Vladimir Putin can’t actually fire those weapons all on his own. Launching a nuclear weapon at Europe or the United States still requires many other people in the chain of command to actually perform certain steps. Simply put, even if Putin went crazy, there are plenty of people surrounding him who likely won’t execute that order.
But a smaller, tactical launch is another story. While still very unlikely, there could be scenarios where Russia detonates a nuclear weapon that might not generate a similar nuclear response from the United States. For example, Russia could detonate a weapon somewhere in the Black Sea or along its own border with Ukraine. Remember, these weapons are much smaller, so the blast might not actually be all that destructive. The idea would be to scare Ukraine or Europe into negotiating an end to the war (leaving much of Ukraine’s territory still in Russian hands).
How Would America Respond?
The Biden administration has repeatedly signaled that both the United States and the NATO alliance would respond with direct military strikes against Russian forces in Ukraine if a nuclear weapon is used in any capacity. There is little doubt that NATO forces could easily crush the Russian military if given the chance. After all, Ukraine’s army has brought devastation to Russia’s army using a combination of bravery, professionalism, and the American military’s spare parts. A Russian nuclear weapon would also cause condemnation from the rest of the world, including China. As Russia’s only major ally right now, Moscow can’t afford to further alienate the Chinese government. So the deterrent effect here is very strong. It doesn’t mean a tactical nuclear launch is impossible, would there are plenty of reasons for Putin to refrain from this course.
What Does It Mean for You?
Any use of nuclear weapons in wartime would set up a dangerous precedent for future conflicts. Once that line is crossed, it makes escalation to full nuclear war easier. But there is also a big risk of allowing a nation like Russia to get away with threatening nuclear war. If we allow Russia to seize control of Ukraine simply because it threatens to blow up the world, we encourage that same behavior the next time Russia (or any nation) wants to get its way. Ultimately, Ukraine isn’t backing down from the fight in the face of Russian nuclear threats (and they are the ones most likely to be hit by them). The rest of the world should stand firm against Russia’s reckless rhetoric and make it clear that any nuclear detonation would bring the full force of the world to bear. Strength, not appeasement, is the best course when dealing with nuclear bullies.