By Marouane El Bahraoui
The Sahel is a vast region in Africa, stretching from Senegal to Sudan, just south of the Sahara Desert. It’s crucial to understand the Sahel now because it's at the center of intense geopolitical competition, with major powers like Russia, China, and the U.S. vying for influence. This struggle impacts global security, migration, and the fight against terrorism. For readers, staying informed about the Sahel means understanding a key battleground that could shape the future of international relations and stability across Africa and beyond.
The Sahel region of Africa, stretching across the continent from Senegal to Sudan and known for its historical empires and rich cultural heritage, is at the center of a geopolitical competition for influence that has global implications. The rise of military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, coupled with the recent withdrawal of French and American forces in these countries, has opened the door for new foreign actors such as Russia, China, European Union, and the Gulf States. The whole West African region is now a geopolitical battleground between Russian-supported inland Sahel states and US-supported coastal states in the Gulf of Guinea.
Amidst this turmoil, the three military leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger face a critical decision: continue to be used as pawns in these more powerful nations’ bid for supremacy or unite under the proposed Confederation of Sahel States (AES) in their own bid to reclaim their sovereignty and control of their future.
With the withdrawal of Western powers, Russia has stepped in, offering military support through the Wagner Group, now rebranded as the Africa Corps. However, this reliance on military solutions has proven ineffective. In an interview with Fahiraman Rodrigue Koné, a security analyst at ISS Africa, he cautions against overreliance on Russia, noting, "The response should not be completely military, and there should not be an overreliance on Russia's military approach." The recent Russian mercenaries’ defeat in Mali, where they failed to quell secessionist movements supported by Ukraine’s Western-backed forces, highlights the limitations of a purely militaristic approach.
The AES provides a platform to diversify foreign partnerships and alter the current dynamics. By uniting, these nations can amplify their bargaining power collectively. Pooling sovereignty means that each member state not only acts independently but also ensures that its counterparts can exercise their sovereignty equally. This collective approach aligns national interests, so instead of Mali negotiating alone, it would be joined by Burkina Faso and Niger, presenting a unified front in dealings with foreign powers.
If such political power is harvested, Sahelian elites can strengthen their ability to negotiate, enhancing their political and economic agency on the international level. Mark Langan, senior lecturer at King’s College, offers an analysis of African state agency in the face of neocolonial aid relationships identifying two types: regressive agency, which merely reacts to external pressures; and progressive agency, which actively seeks to build real, empirical sovereign power within a neocolonial context.
While aid often compromises African policy autonomy, Langan argues that the agency of African states can be strengthened through Pan-African unity. This unity allows these states to resist the pressures of foreign powers and forge genuine, transformative partnerships that prioritize the needs of African societies over external interests. The Confederation of Sahel States could embody this Pan-African vision, where sovereignty is shared among the member nations to strengthen their collective voice on the global stage.
The Sahel’s importance is tied to its historical connection and geographic proximity to Europe. Dr. Malte Lierl from the GIGA Institute explained to me in an interview, "The Sahel’s proximity to Europe and its role in security, migration, and anti-democratic governance make it a significant region." Yet, despite this strategic importance, the region remains plagued by instability, with smuggling and extremism thriving in the shadows of state weakness. Smuggling, once considered legitimate trade by locals, has now become a “globalized and economically powerful activity that coincides with the exponential growth of extremism”, said Dr. Lierl.
Dr. Lierl added, "These states are out of equilibrium, and there has to be an intra-national dialogue on what the functions of the state should be like." Without this internal cohesion, the confederation risks becoming another ineffective regional body, like the G5 Sahel, which failed to foster serious cooperation in dealing with cross-border terrorism.
The confederation could also address the longstanding disconnect between the state and local populations. The centralized governance models imposed by colonial powers have left many regions in the Sahel marginalized and disconnected from official state government. In Niger, for example, the urbanization rate is only 17.6%, indicating that a vast majority of the population lives in rural areas. This contrasts sharply with electricity access, where only about 19.2% of Niger's total population had access to electricity in 2022. Similar patterns can be observed in countries like Burkina Faso, where urbanization is relatively low, leading to a stark rural-urban divide in infrastructure and services. This disconnect has been exploited by jihadist groups, which thrive in areas far from the capital where they can outcompete the state and evade security forces.
As Koné explained to me, "Jihadist groups grew stronger amidst secessionist movements like the Tuareg rebellion," highlighting the state’s failure to maintain a presence in vast areas. In Mali's Mopti region, jihadist groups have implemented informal justice systems and built schools to gain the support of local communities. Based on my experience and knowledge of terrorist groups’ activities in Morocco, and growing up in a shantytown on the outskirts of Rabat, it was not surprising to get approached by extremist groups who were recruiting the youth who often attend the mosque, promising the hopeless populations a more secure future in this world or even Jannah (Arabic word for heaven or paradise) in the afterlife.
The AES should decentralize the administrative structures of its member states, allowing local communities to have a greater say in their governance and ensuring that aid and development projects are tailored to their specific needs. For example, while Russia’s construction of nuclear power plants in Mali and Burkina Faso may seem beneficial on the surface, they are logistically impractical for the dispersed populations in remote villages. As Malian energy engineer Abdoulaye Gackou has pointed out, nuclear energy benefits concentrated areas, whereas solar energy is more suited to the Sahel's rural conditions. This contrast highlights the need for aid to focus on solutions that enhance state capacity and local development rather than merely serving the strategic interests of external powers.
The success of AES depends on converting popular support for military regimes into real improvements in governance and everyday life. As Koné stated to me, "Legitimacy is provided by the social and popular support." Yet, he stresses that this support needs to be "translated into policies that improve the life conditions of the people," rather than remaining empty rhetoric.
To do this, the confederation must address local needs head-on. One example is investing in rural infrastructure to improve access to electricity. By focusing on solar energy initiatives, the confederation could boost economic growth and public trust in government services. Another crucial area is education. In Mali's Mopti region, extremists have filled the gap left by the state by setting up informal Quranic schools. Redirecting efforts to build and support government-run schools could counteract this influence and promote stability. Koné points out that responding to demands with "something visible" is key. Access to healthcare, clean water, and basic services in rural areas could strengthen state legitimacy and ensure the confederation's long-term viability.
Another source of legitimacy for the confederation could be Pan-Africanism as the ideological foundation for its transformative agenda. In his final years, Julius Kambarage Nyerere, former president of Tanzania, acknowledged that the Ghanaian pan-Africanist Kwame Nkrumah’s federalist approach could have empowered African nations to challenge the imbalances left by colonialism. Today, similar dynamics persist as new global powers, despite their rhetoric of partnership and development, often pursue interests that perpetuate the very issues they claim to address. As Fahiraman reminded me, "Pan-Africanism strengthens the sovereigntist stance, but it needs to be translated into better governance." This translation is crucial for moving beyond rhetoric and ensuring that the confederation addresses the real needs of the people: security, economic prosperity, and hope.
The Confederation of Sahel States represents a significant opportunity for the region to assert its sovereignty in a multipolar world. Recent actions, such as the launch of new common biometric passports, show progress toward regional integration. The most recent high-level diplomatic meeting in Mali, following their July summit, underscores their commitment to a unified stance in regional and global politics. These developments hint at growing momentum, which, if sustained, could help the Sahelian states navigate a path toward stability amidst an overhauling world order.