The American people have spoken, and will return a populist, potentially isolationist president to power. What could this mean for the world and America’s place in it? Let’s examine where we go from here.
The World Order
What’s clear from the fallout of this result is that the strength of the U.S.-led international order as we know it is likely decline for the foreseeable future. This doesn’t mean that everything changes tomorrow. The United Nations will still exist and America still has the strongest and most capable military by far, but America’s willingness to back up powerful international organizations will probably diminish. It’s clear we are not going back to the time when America supported its traditional allies all around the world without question. The isolationism of 2016 wasn’t an anomaly, it’s a long-running trend. Now we are likely to see a much more transactional foreign policy, where issues are negotiated purely based on exchanging one concession for another. Because of this, America’s credibility to negotiate lasting deals may take a hit. Despite these changes, there are still some risks and opportunities for specific crises around the world. Let’s take a look at those.
The Risks
In Ukraine, Russia’s war of aggression could be heading towards its conclusion. Both armies are severely strained and taking large amounts of territory is extremely difficult on both sides. Trump has made it very clear he will not provide any further support to Ukraine, so the country will likely be divided in two. In this scenario, Russia would keep the territory it currently holds, but would cease hostilities. Unfortunately, this outcome can increase the incentives for other countries to invade their neighbors and it would do little to stop Russia from building up its military and invading again in a few years.
In Gaza, Israel will be given a free hand to do almost anything in the region without criticism from the United States. We are likely to see many moves that disadvantage Palestinians including the possible annexation of parts of the West Bank and Gaza Strip by Israel. If there was any hope left for a functional Palestinian nation, it is truly gone now.
Regarding NATO, the future looks very uncertain. We should not be surprised to see an aggressive move by Russia that challenges NATO’s Article 5 collective defense promise. Putin won’t want to start an all-out war, but he would love the chance to show the entire world that America won’t back up its traditional allies. Despite these possibilities, there are a few opportunities for foreign policy engagement that we might see in the next few years.
The Opportunities
Both the Biden and Trump administrations had a relatively similar approach towards the concerns of competition with China. We could see continued coordination with our traditional allies in the Asia-Pacific region when responding to China’s rise.
In the Middle East, we can expect more efforts to improve relations between several nations and Israel. Saudi Arabia and Israel were already on track to normalize relations prior to the Oct 7 attack, and this seems even more likely once the current war in Gaza and Lebanon begins to wind down.
The Home Front
What does it mean at home? In truth, most of these conflicts won’t have a direct impact, but overall U.S. engagement in the world still matters. Many of these outcomes are disappointing to people who champion America’s traditional role in the world and our foreign policy priorities for the last several decades. But what’s more important than any one issue or foreign policy proposal is that the United States must maintain it’s leadership in world affairs. Turning our backs on the world will not solve our domestic problems, it only makes them worse. No matter which president determines our foreign policy, we must continue to hold a seat at the table in global organizations. We must not throw away the hard-won peace and prosperity that so many before us have sacrificed to create. We are part of this world, whether some of us like it or not. American global leadership has tremendous overall advantages for the American people and economy, even if it doesn’t directly enrich every American on a personal level.
But these massive global problems cannot be solved by one person alone. Instead, we can focus on the smaller things that can improve lives in our own communities. We can build bridges with those with whom we disagree. We can volunteer with local organizations and get involved in community government. The sum of small actions can lead to big results. Part of the reason for America’s isolationist trend is that many in the foreign policy world have been so focused on global problems that we forget to see the every day issues in our own communities. Let’s not make this mistake anymore.